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Trade Review and Strategy Drift

Attribute P&L changes to signals, execution, costs, and sizing, then decide whether to resize or pause.

These prompts are original practice. They are not questions from a named employer or a live hiring loop.

P&L bridge

Previously each trade had 8 bp gross edge, 3 bp execution cost and 1 bp other cost. Now gross edge is 6 bp, execution cost 4 bp and other cost 1 bp. Each period trades $50m. Use the same notional basis.

  1. 1.What was old net edge?

  2. 2.What is new net edge?

  3. 3.What old net dollars were earned on this basis?

  4. 4.What net dollars does the new edge produce?

  5. 5.How much of the drop in edge comes from gross signal?

  6. 6.How much comes from execution cost?

  7. 7.What should the trader compare across similar trades?

  8. 8.What if all post-change trades are in thin names?

  9. 9.What would support fixing execution first?

  10. 10.What if edge is too uncertain to size normally?

Fill selection

A passive route fills 40% of attempts. Filled units earn 2 bp net, and unfilled units are completed elsewhere at 5 bp cost. Another route fills 80%, earns 1 bp on fills, and costs 2 bp on misses. Use equal-sized attempts.

  1. 11.What is first-route expected net value per attempted unit?

  2. 12.What is second-route expected net value?

  3. 13.How much better is the second?

  4. 14.Which route looks better on fills alone?

  5. 15.At what first-route fill fraction does its net value break even?

  6. 16.What if child sizes differ materially?

  7. 17.What might explain adverse fills in a passive strategy?

  8. 18.Which benchmark should include the alternative route cost?

  9. 19.What if the strategy no longer chases misses?

  10. 20.How should a route change be tested?

Strategy sizing

A strategy earns 3 bp per dollar gross. It trades $5m per signal with 1 bp cost. Doubling size leaves the gross rate unchanged but raises cost to 2.5 bp. Assume the cost applies to all notional at that size.

  1. 21.What net dollars follow at $5m?

  2. 22.What net dollars follow at $10m?

  3. 23.Which size has better modeled net economics?

  4. 24.What cost at $10m would match the smaller profit?

  5. 25.What if the two size tiers differ in order urgency?

  6. 26.What checks trade capacity most directly?

  7. 27.What if volume doubles only during a volatile event?

  8. 28.What reporting unit distinguishes sizing from edge changes?

  9. 29.What if further trades also increase tail loss enough to breach a limit?

  10. 30.What should a resizing trigger name?

Timing a forecast

Signals predict a 10 bp move at decision time. Replay estimates only 6 bp still available at median order arrival and 4 bp at p95 arrival. Fees and execution cost total 3 bp under the simplified comparison.

  1. 31.What net edge is available at median arrival?

  2. 32.What net edge is available at p95 arrival?

  3. 33.How much signal decays before median arrival?

  4. 34.If total cost rises to 5 bp at p95, what net follows?

  5. 35.What clocks should be aligned?

  6. 36.What if simulated fills occur before the signal timestamp?

  7. 37.What distinguishes latency drift from a weaker forecast?

  8. 38.What if the median improves but p95 worsens?

  9. 39.Which remediation fits when policy holds orders too long?

  10. 40.When is an order too late to send?

Cost drift

A strategy's broker commission remains 0.4 bp. Average spread paid rises from 1.0 to 1.4 bp and impact rises from 0.6 to 1.3 bp. Borrow costs move from 0.5 to 0.8 bp. All use the same base.

  1. 41.What was total cost?

  2. 42.What is the new total?

  3. 43.How much did cost increase?

  4. 44.Which component explains the largest increase?

  5. 45.What gross edge now breaks even?

  6. 46.What might make these components overlap?

  7. 47.Why stratify borrow by name and holding period?

  8. 48.What should be checked if several losses follow forced buy-ins?

  9. 49.What if switching brokers only cuts 0.1 bp commission?

  10. 50.Which cost measure should decide whether to keep an order style?

Exposure masquerading as alpha

A strategy made $240k in a month. Attribution estimates $150k from market beta, $55k from a sector residual, and $25k in fees. Treat gross residual signal P&L as the balancing item.

  1. 51.What was gross P&L before fees?

  2. 52.What gross amount remains after removing market and sector?

  3. 53.What residual return remains after all stated fees?

  4. 54.What happens to the apparent strategy if market gain reverses by the same amount and everything else stays fixed?

  5. 55.What does the original net profit fail to establish?

  6. 56.What next test checks stability?

  7. 57.How should unexplained P&L be handled?

  8. 58.What data helps check attribution?

  9. 59.If the sector tilt is unintended, what action fits?

  10. 60.What if the mandate allows deliberate factor risk?

Changed regime

A signal earns 5 bp gross in calm markets and −3 bp gross in volatile markets. Constant implementation cost is 2 bp. Volatile share of trade notional rises from 20% to 50%. Assume outcomes within each state are unchanged.

  1. 61.What is calm net edge?

  2. 62.What is volatile net edge?

  3. 63.What was old mixed edge?

  4. 64.What is the new mixed edge?

  5. 65.What volatile fraction breaks even?

  6. 66.What explains the aggregate deterioration in this exercise?

  7. 67.How can a regime gate be evaluated fairly?

  8. 68.What cost can a regime gate introduce?

  9. 69.What if the state estimate is ambiguous?

  10. 70.What would show actual within-state drift?

Inventory and exits

A mean-reversion strategy made $120k on entries and convergence. Forced inventory exits cost $50k. Fees are $20k and an omitted financing charge is $15k. All terms are additive.

  1. 71.What net was reported before financing?

  2. 72.What is corrected net?

  3. 73.How much would cutting exit cost from $50k to $30k improve net?

  4. 74.What net would follow that improvement?

  5. 75.Why break out forced exits separately?

  6. 76.What helps identify the high-cost inventory cohort?

  7. 77.What if a tighter cap would have avoided some losses and some gains?

  8. 78.What if the trade's terminal spread later converges after a forced sale?

  9. 79.Which statistic addresses whether losses are concentrated?

  10. 80.Which check belongs before increasing the inventory cap?

Evidence and decision gates

A desk pauses a strategy if net edge is below zero or independently if stress loss exceeds $200k. It scales only if a conservative edge estimate exceeds 1 bp and both gates pass. A review estimates net edge 1.8 bp, lower uncertainty bound 0.5 bp, and stress loss $180k.

  1. 81.Does the initial result trigger a pause under the stated rules?

  2. 82.Does the initial result support scaling?

  3. 83.What stress headroom remains?

  4. 84.If stress loss rises to $210k, what follows?

  5. 85.If the bound improves to 1.2 bp and stress stays $180k, what follows?

  6. 86.Why define the gates before seeing the results?

  7. 87.What data would justify raising confidence in the estimate?

  8. 88.What if adding size would increase the predicted stress loss past its cap?

  9. 89.How should a failed hypothesis be documented?

  10. 90.What next action fits an inconclusive but safe review?

Counterfactual validation

After a routing change, matched trades earn 2.4 bp net versus 1.8 bp before. A concurrent unchanged control improves from 1.5 to 2.0 bp. Assume the control approximates common conditions.

  1. 91.What raw improvement did the changed route show?

  2. 92.How much did the control improve?

  3. 93.What simple difference-in-differences estimate follows?

  4. 94.What assumption underlies that adjustment?

  5. 95.What if control trades have a different volatility sensitivity?

  6. 96.What if the changed route also receives a new signal?

  7. 97.What safeguard reduces discretionary selection?

  8. 98.What other outcome should the pilot report?

  9. 99.When is a 0.1 bp estimate actionable?

  10. 100.What should be checked at larger allocation?

  11. 101.What makes the final decision defensible?